[Info-vax] "x86 has only a few years left in the market place"

[Arne Vajhøj]

On 5/12/2018 12:27 PM, Stephen Hoffman wrote:
> VSI is well aware of Arm and indicated such back when that whole porting 
> show got started in 2014.  As a potential future porting target.
> 
> Any suggestion of shifting to a different platform years into the port 
> and right around first boot borders on a decision to kill VSI and 
> OpenVMS.  Arm may well overrun the server market in the next decades, 
> but it'll take a decade before Arm servers become widespread at best, 
> and the x86-64 servers are going to continue to be available in vast 
> numbers and myriad models for the foreseeable future.  And Intel will 
> have more competition than they might prefer for their pricing.
> 
> OpenVMS on alternative platforms?   Sure.  Maybe.   Call back in five or 
> ten years, once the OpenVMS x86-64 port is available and robust, and 
> once Arm servers or RISC-V — or who knows, maybe even POWER — become far 
> more available and far more ubiquitous and acceptable server hardware 
> platform alternative for a small software-only company. Adding 
> additional supported platforms makes more work and more complexity for 
> VSI and ISVs and end-user customers, and there needs to be a good reason 
> for that cost and that porting effort and those hardware and software 
> support costs.  And marketing both x86-64 and Arm or whatever else makes 
> for more complex marketing for VSI, too. Replacing platforms?  Arm and 
> POWER and RISC-V are not viable replacements for x86-64 servers.  Not yet.
> 
> x86-64 is what VSI is depending on, and there'll be increasing 
> dependencies on open source and extending well beyond LLVM.  Where we 
> are once the x86-64 port is settled?  We shall see.  I'd not be 
> immediately looking for another port either, as there's a whole lot of 
> work necessary to bring the OpenVMS platform forward and to broaden 
> peripheral and hardware and software support, and a platform port — at 
> the scale of VSI — freezes most of that very necessary work.

And there is one important point.

If the world in 10 or 20 or 30 years decides to switch from
x86-64 to XYZ, then VSI will not be alone.

LLVM backends for XYZ will be done by the industry.

Figuring out how to use XYZ in various OS types (server,
desktop etc.) will be done by the industry.

Arne