[Info-vax] [Totally OT] Covid-19, was: Re: Creating an open source version of VMS, was: Re: OpenVMS Hobbyist Notification

[Simon Clubley]

On 2020-03-16, Arne Vajhøj <arne at vajhoej.dk> wrote:
> On 3/16/2020 12:46 PM, Bill Gunshannon wrote:
>> On 3/16/20 8:43 AM, Arne Vajhøj wrote:
>>> What you can expect:
>>>
>>> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised 
>> 
>> I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
>> media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
>> officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
>> virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
>> recurrence.

There are reports circulating within the UK that this is exactly
what they want to do.

>>  This compared to a a report (also in the media)
>> the the CDC has said recovered cases show no sign of any
>> kind of antibodies.

That's a serious concern. If that's true, it looks like we are going
to be going through all this again next winter until the vaccine
is ready.

>
> I don't know what they want to do.
>
> I am pretty sure that I know what they can do: very little.
>

They can implement strict social distancing measures.

> This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
> ordinary flu virus.
>

The normal flu virus does at least have a vaccine available
which can attenuate this spread.

> The obvious conclusion is that it will spread at least as much
> as ordinary flu virus.
>
> Conclusion seems obvious: most will eventually get it.
>
> All the initiatives they are doing are not so much to
> reduce the number of people that will get it but to reduce
> the number of people that will get it at the same time. Aka
> they are trying to spread it out over a longer time to enable
> hospitals to handle.
>

Yes, that's exactly what the plan is. However, one problem with that
plan is that the NHS has suffered cutbacks over the last decade and
it's likely to show regardless of planning. This is the latest challenge:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51914490

which is to do with available ventilators.

(I've changed that to bbc.com for people outside of the UK in case the
bbc.co.uk version isn't available to you.)

> Politicians can be more or less honest about that.
>

And that bit they have said upfront in media interviews.

Unfortunately, there is serious concern that, if the UK government's
plan to wait until it gets worse before implementing the same drastic
measures that other countries have done does not work, then it will be
too late to implement those plans effectively.

Don't forget that actions taken today are not designed to affect
tomorrow's infected count, but the count 14 days from when those
actions are taken.

That means if it becomes _really_ obvious in the near future that the
situation is now out of control, then it's about 2 weeks too late to
implement the plans that would have reduced those infected numbers.

Simon.

-- 
Simon Clubley, clubley at remove_me.eisner.decus.org-Earth.UFP
Walking destinations on a map are further away than they appear.