[Info-vax] [Totally OT] Covid-19, was: Re: Creating an open source version of VMS, was: Re: OpenVMS Hobbyist Notification

[Bill Gunshannon]

On 3/16/20 3:07 PM, Simon Clubley wrote:
> On 2020-03-16, Arne Vajhøj <arne at vajhoej.dk> wrote:
>> On 3/16/2020 12:46 PM, Bill Gunshannon wrote:
>>> On 3/16/20 8:43 AM, Arne Vajhøj wrote:
>>>> What you can expect:
>>>>
>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
>>>
>>> I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
>>> media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
>>> officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
>>> virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
>>> recurrence.
> 
> There are reports circulating within the UK that this is exactly
> what they want to do.
> 
>>>    This compared to a a report (also in the media)
>>> the the CDC has said recovered cases show no sign of any
>>> kind of antibodies.
> 
> That's a serious concern. If that's true, it looks like we are going
> to be going through all this again next winter until the vaccine
> is ready.
> 

Not holding out much hope for that.  There have already been reports
that the virus has mutated at least once.

>>
>> I don't know what they want to do.
>>
>> I am pretty sure that I know what they can do: very little.
>>
> 
> They can implement strict social distancing measures.

and how long do you think that can go on without destroying
what we know as civilization?  :-)


> 
>> This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
>> ordinary flu virus.
>>
> 
> The normal flu virus does at least have a vaccine available
> which can attenuate this spread.

The actual effectiveness of this is strongly debated by real doctors.
While I get my flu shot every year I know a number of doctors who say'
it is a meaningless practice as by the time the flu vaccine is ready
the flu has mutated into something completely different.  (One just
said that to me last week.)

> 
>> The obvious conclusion is that it will spread at least as much
>> as ordinary flu virus.
>>
>> Conclusion seems obvious: most will eventually get it.
>>
>> All the initiatives they are doing are not so much to
>> reduce the number of people that will get it but to reduce
>> the number of people that will get it at the same time. Aka
>> they are trying to spread it out over a longer time to enable
>> hospitals to handle.
>>
> 
> Yes, that's exactly what the plan is. However, one problem with that
> plan is that the NHS has suffered cutbacks over the last decade and
> it's likely to show regardless of planning. This is the latest challenge:
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51914490
> 
> which is to do with available ventilators.
> 
> (I've changed that to bbc.com for people outside of the UK in case the
> bbc.co.uk version isn't available to you.)
> 
>> Politicians can be more or less honest about that.
>>
> 
> And that bit they have said upfront in media interviews.

Q: How do you tell when a politician is lying?
A: His lips move.

> 
> Unfortunately, there is serious concern that, if the UK government's
> plan to wait until it gets worse before implementing the same drastic
> measures that other countries have done does not work, then it will be
> too late to implement those plans effectively.
> 
> Don't forget that actions taken today are not designed to affect
> tomorrow's infected count, but the count 14 days from when those
> actions are taken.
> 
> That means if it becomes _really_ obvious in the near future that the
> situation is now out of control, then it's about 2 weeks too late to
> implement the plans that would have reduced those infected numbers.
> 

bill