[Info-vax] [Totally OT] Covid-19, was: Re: Creating an open source version of VMS, was: Re: OpenVMS Hobbyist Notification

[Arne Vajhøj]

On 3/17/2020 10:17 AM, MG wrote:
> Op 16-mrt.-2020 om 17:58 schreef Arne Vajhøj:
>> This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
>> ordinary flu virus
> No, it's not.  It's a respiratory virus, but not "a type of
> flu virus".

OK

>> The obvious conclusion is that it will spread at least as much
>> as ordinary flu virus.
> 
> Also incorrect.  If it had spread like that, it would've been
> everywhere already.

The normal seasonal flu supposedly has a R0 of 1.3.

WHO estimates for R0 for COVID-19 is 1.4-2.5. Other
estimates are slightly higher.

So if defining contagious as R0 then it is at least
as contagious as normal seasonal flu.

(R0 is basically how many other each ill person infect)

>> Conclusion seems obvious: most will eventually get it.
> 
> Because many countries were too busy ridiculing and deriding
> countries that took adequate measures as being "draconian".

Until an effective vaccine becomes available, then draconian
measures will likely just impact how fast people get
it and not if they get it.

Draconian measures may still make a lot of sense to keep
infection rate withing hospital capacity.

But I think people are kidding themselves if they
think "if just the government does XYZ then I will not
get it". Until an effective vaccine is developed the
chances are 25% or 50% or 75% to get it.

People like to be in control of their own destiny. But
we are not always in control. We can hope to be lucky
(this mornings news is that fatality rate is dropping,
which may just reflect that more with just light
symptoms are being diagnosed with it) or we can pray
to god if we are religious.

And my take is that this is the bottom line: we should follow
advice from the professionals and then we can hope/pray for
the best.

Arne