[Info-vax] [Totally OT] Covid-19, was: Re: Creating an open source version of VMS, was: Re: OpenVMS Hobbyist Notification

[Arne Vajhøj]

On 3/17/2020 12:33 PM, MG wrote:
> Op 17-mrt.-2020 om 16:02 schreef Arne Vajhøj:
>> The normal seasonal flu supposedly has a R0 of 1.3.
>>
>> WHO estimates for R0 for COVID-19 is 1.4-2.5. Other
>> estimates are slightly higher.
>>
>> So if defining contagious as R0 then it is at least
>> as contagious as normal seasonal flu.
>>
>> (R0 is basically how many other each ill person infect)
> 
> You can look up information on the WHO website, Wikipedia
> and so forth, but I think you're overlooking the fact that
> most types of influenza are fully airborne, while corona
> isn't and is mostly carried over by 'droplets'.

Yes.

But they can stick around on surfaces for a long time.

They don't know exactly how long for SARS-Cov-2/Covid-19
but other corona viruses can stay around for a long time.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

<quote>
Some studies on other coronaviruses, including Sars and Mers, found they 
can survive on metal, glass and plastic for as long as nine days, unless 
they are properly disinfected. Some can even hang around for up to 28 
days in low temperatures.
</quote>

So it is not just whether anybody is coughing on you, but also whether
you touch anything touched by somebody else within X days.

>> Until an effective vaccine becomes available, then draconian
>> measures will likely just impact how fast people get
>> it and not if they get it.
> 
> That's not the experience of, say, Hong Kong.  But keep
> arrogantly insisting on your "it's just a flu" mantras.

It certainly has a much higher fatality rate than seasonal
flu.

Nobody know exactly how much higher yet.

Seasonal flu is 0.1%.

First estimates in the 3-4% range was just deaths among
those receiving treatment and that is obviously overestimating
as those with mild symptoms do not require treatment.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

guesses based on Chinese experience on:

0-14 yo : 0.0%
14-44 yo : 0.5%
45-64 yo : 0.5%
65+ yo : 2.7%

The UK chief medical officer guesses on below 1% per:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/what-is-coronavirus-cure-mortality-rate-covid-19-guide

Arne