[Info-vax] [Totally OT] Covid-19, was: Re: Creating an open source version of VMS, was: Re: OpenVMS Hobbyist Notification

[Arne Vajhøj]

On 9/30/2020 11:16 PM, Richard Maher wrote:
> On 28/09/2020 12:17 am, Jan-Erik Söderholm wrote:
>> A lot was written this spring, and some thought that they already had
>> the final summary at that time, which no one had then, of course.
>>
>> The Swedish ICU capacity was never over-loaded, there have always
>> been free capacity at hand over the full pandemic period, so far.
>>
>> Now, in late September, one can start looking back at the numbers
>> during the whole Covid period (but only "so far" of course).
>>
>> Whole period, deaths/100.000 inhabitants:
>> 9'th place, USA: 62.28
>> 12'th place, Sweden 57.74

>> And if looking at the current rate:
>> Last two weeks, deaths/100.000 inhabitants:
>> 17'th place, USA 3.29
>> 78'th place, Sweden 0.33

>> So yes, Sweden was hit quite hard in the beginning, mainly caused by
>> last decades of privatization in the eldery care. The venture capitalist,
>> looking at the next quarter results, are not that good at long time
>> planning, and some had warned about this years ago.
>>
>> But we learned and since June our figures has been amongst the lowest.
>> Other European coutries that tried political driven hard lock-downs
>> are now generally facing problems with raising numbers again when
>> they try to relax the lock-downs.
>>
>> But, we are still within the pandemic and we probably need yet another
>> 6-12 months before we can get the finial conclusions.
>>
>> I don't know what the figures says about the USA health care system,
>> but maybe that, at least, it says that Trump doesn't know much about
>> pandemics...
>>
>> So it is probably better to have scentific view on what should be
>> done than letting the politicans have their view and try to show
>> force by making their decisions.
>>
>> But maybe one should also put all this into perspective. During this
>> pandemic period, now approx 1 M persons are registrered as died by
>> Covid. At the same time approx 50 M people have died of other causes.

> Effect on GDP even with "no" lockdown?

Relative small difference.

OECD predictions for GDP for single hit:

Sweden  -6.7%
USA  -7.5%

OECD predictions for GDP for double hit:

Sweden  -7.8%
USA  -9.3%

Arne