[Info-vax] And another one bites the dust....

[Dan Cross]

In article <sumf59$j67$1 at dont-email.me>,
Dave Froble  <davef at tsoft-inc.com> wrote:
>On 2/17/2022 2:17 PM, Arne Vajhøj wrote:
>> [snip]
>> But the question comes up again and again. If the question comes
>> up every 3 years and it is 20% migrate 80% keep, then after 24
>> years 87% has migrated.
>
>Statistics doesn't work that way.  It is not cumulative.  If the ratio is 20/80, 
>then every time it's 20/80.

Since not many _new_ organizations are adopting mainframes, it
compounds.  1-(4/5)^8 is about 83%.  Those that remain may increase
their mainframe investment over time, but as a percentage of the
whole market, they will shrink. 

	- Dan C.