[Info-vax] OS implementation languages

[Arne Vajhøj]

On 9/11/2023 8:51 AM, Simon Clubley wrote:
> On 2023-09-09, Arne Vajhøj <arne at vajhoej.dk> wrote:
>> Millions of web sites running PHP indicate that PHP is a good
>> fit for solving web security problems.
> 
> It means absolutely nothing of the sort Arne.
> 
> All it means is that PHP has a sufficiently large ecosystem that
> it has become established as the "required" language for many
> things regardless of whether or not there are better alternatives.

There is such a thing as inertia when it comes to software. It is not
like everybody is rewriting their software to a new and better
technology the day after the new technology shows up.

But there a few things worth noting.

1) Inertia helps a language on its way out, but makes it
    harder for language on its way up. PHP managed to get
    its current position back in the 00's by pushing out
    older technologies ASP classic, Perl CGI, ColdFusion etc.
    and getting ahead of other contenders like ASP.NET and
    Java EE. Considering inertia makes PHP in the 00's
    even more impressive.

2) Even though inertia help a language on its way out,
    then it does not save it. It just lowers the annual
    attrition rate. If the applications are used for 10-20-30-40
    years then the attrition rate is low and inertia can
    keep software around for a very long time. If the applications
    are used 2-4-6-8 years then the attrition rate is high and
    inertia effect runs out fast. Web applications are one
    of the most short lived types of applications. If a web technology
    is no longer a top technology then it goes from de facto standard
    to niche in less than 10 years. It has not happened to PHP.

3) There are not many languages pushing PHP out. The client side
    focus with HTML 5 does not make server side obsolete.
    ASP.NET and Java EE has never been a strong competitor in the
    low cost market. Python, RoR, Grails etc. came and looked very
    promising but stayed niche (Python succeeded hugely in other
    markets but not in web applications). The only promising
    competitor is node.js. PHP is loosing market share to
    node.js - serious market share. But I can't see node.js
    replace PHP - node.js is more narrow targeted than PHP.
    So it may eat 25% or 33% of PHP's market, but I don't
    see it eat 75% or 90%.

> Pretty much like Windows on the desktop.
> 
> In fact, thinking about it, PHP is the programming language equivalent
> of Windows.

I don't think you have realized how the desktop market has
worked the last 20 years.

Desktop Linux has been pushed as a competitor against Windows
again and again by those that really like Linux.

But the customers have mostly preferred to pay for Windows (or in
some cases for macOS).

If Linux desktop people had been smart, then they would have
focused a lot on what customers like about Windows and
improved desktop Linux.

But admitting that Windows was better at meeting customers
need was too embarrassing a thought to be considered, so
it became a common refrain along the lines of "desktop
users are just stupid to pick Windows".

As a consequence of that attitude MS was practically
guaranteed to keep Windows's dominant position on the
desktop market.

I believe Windows has been selling for 15-25 B$ every year
the last 20 years.

So the desktop Linux people have given Microsoft a gift
of 300-500 B$ of revenue.

I suspect that Steve Ballmer despite what he says
publicly really loves Linux desktop people. They have
made him very rich!

Arne