[Info-vax] how many people are running X86 variant of OPenVMS in Production?

[Simon Clubley]

On 2023-09-28, Arne Vajhøj <arne at vajhoej.dk> wrote:
> On 9/28/2023 4:04 PM, Arne Vajhøj wrote:
>> On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 8:53:13?PM UTC-4, David Turner wrote:
>>> How many people are running X86 variant of OpenVMS in Production?
>> 
>> Probably not many today. But it will increase!
>> 
>> If we divide current VMS customers in 4 categories:
>> A) has moved to VMS x86-64
>> B) want to move to VMS x86-64 and has started test/development
>> C) want to move to VMS x86-64 but has not started test/development yet
>>     (waiting for VMS Basic, waiting for Rdb, waiting for funding,
>>     waiting for resources to free up from other projects etc.)
>> D) will never move to VMS x86-64
>> 
>> Right now category A is tiny as in zero or almost zero.
>> 
>> But over the coming years customers will move B -> A and C -> B -> A.
>
> One could use a random number generator to produce some
> guesses:
>
>     2023   2024   2025   2026   2027   2028
> A    0%    20%    45%    70%    75%    80%
> B   30%    35%    15%    10%     5%     0%
> C   50%    25%    10%     0%     0%     0%
> D   20%    20%    20%    20%    20%    20%
>

Bloody hell, you and I actually agree on something because that
pretty much matches my mental model. :-) (But A at 20% in 2024 may be
rather too high.)

Your D) may be too low as well because by now, VMS has become very
much a legacy platform and companies may no longer be able to justify
the move to x86-64 VMS, especially given the move away from permanant
licences to time-limited licences. (Yes, I know VSI have made
concessions in that area, but IIRC, it doesn't involve selling licences
that are good forever, at least to most customers.)

There should also be an E) variant of C), which is "we really, really,
want to move to x86-64 VMS but will never be able to do so because
a product we need will never be available on it."

Simon.

-- 
Simon Clubley, clubley at remove_me.eisner.decus.org-Earth.UFP
Walking destinations on a map are further away than they appear.