[Info-vax] [OT follow-up] Hurricane Sandy and hurricane frequency over time

[Bill Gunshannon]

In article <d292cb72-df75-4b2c-8116-f2679650085e at googlegroups.com>,
	AEF <spamsink2001 at yahoo.com> writes:
> On Wednesday, October 30, 2013 7:22:58 AM UTC-4, Bill Gunshannon wrote:
>> In article <c8330b60-473a-4b06-a1fd-468cf17bfcaf at googlegroups.com>,
>> 
>> 	AEF <spamsink2001 at yahoo.com> writes:
>> 
>> > I can't find the original thread, but perhaps starting a new one is better.
>> 
>> > 
>> 
>> > Way back some of you (JF, at least) said we were to have annual big hurricanes 
>> 
>> > like Irene and Sandy on the East Coast. Well, where is this year's?!
>> 
>> > 
>> 
>> > We are through most of this year's North Atlantic hurricane season (see 
>> 
>> > http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/ for the frequency plot vs day of year) and 
>> 
>> > there's no big hurricane in sight. You can see on this plot (scroll down a bit 
>> 
>> > to get to it) that hurricane season is pretty much over. The odds for hurricanes 
>> 
>> > now are pretty slim. 
>> 
>> > 
>> 
>> > Yes, we might get more and bigger hurricanes in the future, but were not up to 
>> 
>> > annual "Sandy's" yet.
>> 
>> > 
>> 
>> > (Wunderground's current "anniversary review" of Sandy can be found at 
>> 
>> > http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2566 )
>> 
>> > 
>> 
>> > Recall that 2004 and 2005 were very active years, but things have been very 
>> 
>> > mellow since, except for Irene and Sandy. Back in 2005 or so people were saying 
>> 
>> > "the sky is falling" type stuff. This is the new norm. Hi-frequency higher-
>> 
>> > powered hurricanes. And what did we get? A lull. A big lull.
>> 
>> > 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> "The sky is falling" sells advertising space and time.  "A big lull" does
>> 
>> not.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> The next "big one" is asteroids.  They have been out there longer than man
>> 
>> has been on this planet.  All of a sudden they are all steering towards us.
>> 
>> Must be the Goa'uld.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> bill
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> > You can check hurricane archives for yourselves at 
>> 
>> > http://classic.wunderground.com/hurricane/hurrarchive.asp or 
>> 
>> > 
>> 
>> > Here's the peak year, 2005:  http://classic.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp
>> 
>> > 
>> 
>> > From there you can easily go forward or backward through the years.
>> 
>> > 
>> 
>> > AEF 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> -- 
>> 
>> Bill Gunshannon          |  de-moc-ra-cy (di mok' ra see) n.  Three wolves
>> 
>> billg999 at cs.scranton.edu |  and a sheep voting on what's for dinner.
>> 
>> University of Scranton   |
>> 
>> Scranton, Pennsylvania   |         #include <std.disclaimer.h>
> 
> Point well taken.
> 
> How about "A _really_ big lull"? (^_^)
> 
> Anyway, with meteors and asteroids: The last earth-altering one hit about 65 
> million years ago and wiped out the dinosaurs. 

Science no longer holds to this theory for the mass extinction of the
dinosaurs.  For obvious reasons...

>                                                You've also got your "Meteor 
> Crater" in Arizona. Had that one hit a city -- well -- pretty bad news. 

No one said they have never hit the earth, but the chances are real
astronomical. ;-)  And thus, not really worth the concern they have
been getting lately.  Especially when coupled with the fact that
unless you thought "Armageddon" was documentary there really is
nothing we are going to do about.

>                                                                       You've 
> also got the 1908 Tunguska asteroid (or whatever it was -- not sure how certain 
> that is), 

Jury seems to be still out on Tunguska as it bears no resemblence to a
normal impact of any kind.

>           and the recent one in Russia.
> 
> Still, your point is well taken. We'll most likely be okay for decades, or even 
> centuries to come. But it can't hurt to keep an eye to the sky -- well, 
> depending on the cost, of course.

And just think of all those nice 6 figure salaries being paid for with
tax dollars so some people can play with real expensive toys.

> 
> And there will be more big storms -- just not every year like many people 
> predicted (Andrew Cuomo, and a few in this NG). Probably more often than 
> before, though. I don't think a storm like Sandy has hit the East Coast
> for a long time, if ever. 

Two tings on this....

Like many of these modern phenomena there is really insufficient data
to tell if this is an upward trend or just part of a cycle (a lot like
the ozone hole question).

I saw NBC's coverage of Sandy, one year later on the news last night.
People were lamenting that one year after Sandy some houses still sit
pretty much as they did the day after the storm with no apparent repairs
being made.  In 1972 Hurricane Agnes dumped its wrath on Northeastern
Pennsylvania.  No one would argue that Agnes was a more violent storm
than Sandy.  However, many houses sat for years with nothing done to
fix them.  A local car dealership (Fiat and Alfa Romeo) got caught with
their pants down and did not even get the cars out before the flooding.
Building sat there with mud encrusted $50,000 sports cars on the showroom
floor for over 5 years before the bankruptcy court let them finally tear
it down and dispose of the destroyed cars.  Tropical Storm Lee flooded
the a number of places along the Susquehanna River in PA (once again!!)
in 2011.  Much of this has not been recovered yet and even commercial
place with good insurance are just now starting to open back up.  The
only difference I have seen with Sandy is the amount of coverage it is
getting.  Lots of places in the US get destroyed by storms every year.
Few of them get the coverage new Jersey is getting.

> 
> OK.
> 


bill

-- 
Bill Gunshannon          |  de-moc-ra-cy (di mok' ra see) n.  Three wolves
billg999 at cs.scranton.edu |  and a sheep voting on what's for dinner.
University of Scranton   |
Scranton, Pennsylvania   |         #include <std.disclaimer.h>