[Info-vax] [OT follow-up] Hurricane Sandy and hurricane frequency over time

[Bill Gunshannon]

In article <d28352dd-806a-4f0d-ad4d-96b0d2d63b8a at googlegroups.com>,
	AEF <spamsink2001 at yahoo.com> writes:
> On Wednesday, October 30, 2013 10:19:51 AM UTC-4, Bill Gunshannon wrote:
>> In article <d292cb72-df75-4b2c-8116-f2679650085e at googlegroups.com>,
>> 
>> 	AEF <spamsink2001 at yahoo.com> writes:
>> 
>> > On Wednesday, October 30, 2013 7:22:58 AM UTC-4, Bill Gunshannon wrote:
>> 
>> >> In article <c8330b60-473a-4b06-a1fd-468cf17bfcaf at googlegroups.com>,
>> 
>> >> 
>> 
>> >> 	AEF <spamsink2001 at yahoo.com> writes:
>> 
> [...]
>> 
>> > Anyway, with meteors and asteroids: The last earth-altering one hit about 65 
>> 
>> > million years ago and wiped out the dinosaurs. 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Science no longer holds to this theory for the mass extinction of the
>> 
>> dinosaurs.  For obvious reasons...
> 
> Really? This is news to me. There is a layer around the earth enriched in 
> iridium by a factor of 100. This element is also more abundant in meteors than 
> on earth, and it dates back to the time of the extinction of the dinosaurs. I 
> could swear I once saw on TV or read that dinosaur fossils are found only below 
> this level, but I couldn't find such a specific statement in a cursory check on 
> the Web. See
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iridium_anomaly
> 
> for more on this fascinating theory.

Correlation does not prove causation.

> 
> What are these "obvious reasons" you speak of?

The fact that everything didn't become extinct, just the dinosaurs and
that not all dinosaurs lived on the surface of the earth but they all
died off at pretty much the same point in history.  And other anomalies
as well.

> 
>> >                                                You've also got your "Meteor 
>> 
>> > Crater" in Arizona. Had that one hit a city -- well -- pretty bad news. 
>> 
>> No one said they have never hit the earth, but the chances are real
>> astronomical. ;-)  And thus, not really worth the concern they have
>> been getting lately.  Especially when coupled with the fact that
>> unless you thought "Armageddon" was documentary there really is
>> nothing we are going to do about.
> 
> Hollywood has zero credibility with me. 
> 
>> 
>> > also got the 1908 Tunguska asteroid (or whatever it was -- not sure how certain 
>> 
>> > that is), 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Jury seems to be still out on Tunguska as it bears no resemblence to a
>> normal impact of any kind.
> 
> I thought the latest was that it was most likely an asteroid. It was a great 
> mystery for a long time, with various scientists coming up with ideas like 
> antimatter and mini black holes and the like. 

The last thing I read on it pointed out the lack of a well defined crater
like we have. And the apparent very narrow track as opposed to the usual
very steep track when objects get close enough to impact.


> 
>> >           and the recent one in Russia.
>> 
>> > Still, your point is well taken. We'll most likely be okay for decades, or even 
>> > centuries to come. But it can't hurt to keep an eye to the sky -- well, 
>> > depending on the cost, of course.
>> 
>> And just think of all those nice 6 figure salaries being paid for with
>> tax dollars so some people can play with real expensive toys.
> 
> Helps keep those pesky scientists off the street! Helps lower the unemployment 
> rate. Increases demand for goods which helps the economy. It also puts severe 
> demands on technology, creating better technology, without having a war do it 
> instead.
> 
> What six-figure salaries? Scientists don't make that much. I know. I _was_ one 
> once! And it paid far less than that! Even tenured professors don't make that 
> much. 
>        At U. of Md. the school newspaper publishes all faculty members' 
> salaries. I think the biggest one I saw was $70K, with most being significantly 
> less. 

There are no tenured professors at NASA.  There are lots of 6 figure salaries.

> 
>> > And there will be more big storms -- just not every year like many people 
>> > predicted (Andrew Cuomo, and a few in this NG). Probably more often than 
>> > before, though. I don't think a storm like Sandy has hit the East Coast
>> > for a long time, if ever. 
>> 
>> Two tings on this....
>> 
>> Like many of these modern phenomena there is really insufficient data
>> to tell if this is an upward trend or just part of a cycle (a lot like
>> the ozone hole question).
> 
> Exactly my point, though I think the evidence on the ozone hole is better than 
> that.

There has been a minor correlation of the changes in the ozone hole and
sunspots.  But they have only been watching the ozone hole for 1.2 to 2
complete sunspot cycles and the recent cycles have been rather mild.
Thus, total lack of data to draw a conclussion.  Come back after several
dozen cycles and lets see what you have then.

>  
>> 
>> I saw NBC's coverage of Sandy, one year later on the news last night.
>> 
>> People were lamenting that one year after Sandy some houses still sit
>> 
>> pretty much as they did the day after the storm with no apparent repairs
>> 
>> being made.  In 1972 Hurricane Agnes dumped its wrath on Northeastern
>> 
>> Pennsylvania.  No one would argue that Agnes was a more violent storm
>> 
>> than Sandy.  However, many houses sat for years with nothing done to
>> 
>> fix them.  A local car dealership (Fiat and Alfa Romeo) got caught with
>> 
>> their pants down and did not even get the cars out before the flooding.
>> 
>> Building sat there with mud encrusted $50,000 sports cars on the showroom
>> 
>> floor for over 5 years before the bankruptcy court let them finally tear
>> 
>> it down and dispose of the destroyed cars.  Tropical Storm Lee flooded
>> 
>> the a number of places along the Susquehanna River in PA (once again!!)
>> 
>> in 2011.  Much of this has not been recovered yet and even commercial
>> 
>> place with good insurance are just now starting to open back up.  The
>> 
>> only difference I have seen with Sandy is the amount of coverage it is
>> 
>> getting.  Lots of places in the US get destroyed by storms every year.
>> 
>> Few of them get the coverage new Jersey is getting.
> 
> That's to make up for all the insulting jokes about New Jersey! There is one I 
> like: "Oh, you from Jersey too? What exit?" I love it. I grew up in New Jersey 
> and now live here again, and you really can get a pretty good idea of were 
> someone lives by their exit number.
> 
> This was more than a flood. Something like 80% to 90% of customers lost power 
> in a huge swath of the area; many, if not most, for over a week! 

Most of the Wyoming Valley was totally without power for more than a month
and getting individual service turned back on often took 6 months to a year.
All electrical wiring had to be replaced and inspected before the power
company would(or could, legally) re connect your electrical service. 

>                                                                  Subway and 
> automobile tunnels completely flooded! One of them was recently shut down for 
> long term repairs. Mass transit systems completely shut down! Lower Manhattan 
> flooded big time and closed down. The Jersey shore in shambles! Roller coasters 
> swept away!

Oh my god!!!  Not the roller coaster!!!  All we lost were hospitals, all
mass transit (most of the car barns and the main terminal were all under
water, communications (the phone company in Wilkes-Barre had emergency
generators.  They were in the basement!!).  And much more, a lot of which
never came back.  It was much more economically devestating than most
people ever realized 9except those that actually live here) and the effects
are still going on today, 40 years later. Look up The Northeast PA Brain
Drain.  40 years ago and it continues today no matter what is tried to
fix it.

> 
> I think this being probably the first time something of this magnitude has hit 
> the East Coast also may have something to do with it. 
> 
> No, I'm not losing any sleep over future meteor or asteroid impacts. There are plenty of man-made problems worthy of far more attention.
> 
> Remember the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami at the end of 2004? 

Nope.

>                                                                       Notice 
> that there weren't any videos, or even photos, taken from the places hardest 
> hit? That was pretty big and got plenty of coverage.

See comment above.  I can't remember seeing much of anything about it other
than the fact that the American taxpayers spent a fortune on relief for
people who don't like anything about us but the handouts.

bill

-- 
Bill Gunshannon          |  de-moc-ra-cy (di mok' ra see) n.  Three wolves
billg999 at cs.scranton.edu |  and a sheep voting on what's for dinner.
University of Scranton   |
Scranton, Pennsylvania   |         #include <std.disclaimer.h>