[Info-vax] Opportunity for VSI?

[Bill Gunshannon]

On 12/15/18 4:01 PM, Arne Vajhøj wrote:
> On 12/15/2018 10:06 AM, Bill Gunshannon wrote:
>> On 12/14/18 10:07 PM, Arne Vajhøj wrote:
>>> On 12/14/2018 9:09 PM, Bill Gunshannon wrote:
>>>> Sounds like you are yet another who has drank the academic
>>>> Kool Aid.
>>>
>>> Just someone that are able to do basic research.
>>>
>>> There are some Fortran code and a lot of Cobol code
>>> in production.
>>
>> There is still lots of Fortran and even more COBOL.  And
>> even a little research can show that aas long as that
>> research isn't based on Monster, Dice and Indeed postings.
> 
> What other research can you suggest that cover hundreds of thousands of
> jobs?

Couldn't say, but that doesn't strengthen the value of
using Monster, Dice and Indeed (among others).  I know
enough about their methods to know it is silly to make
any use of them as an accurate source of trending data
a waste.

> 
>>> But the companies are not hiring people to maintain
>>> or enhance it.
>>
>> Experience varies.  The places I mentioned fo0r COBOL are
>> constantly in the hiring mode.  Finding qualified people
>> is becoming the problem.  (The last COBOL gig I did was
>> in GA in 2012.  After I left they spent 3 years repeatedly
>> advertising for another COBOL programmer.  No one who
>> applied had any COBOL experience at all.  After three
>> years they just stopped trying.  I have spoken with them
>> about the problem and know for a fact what transpired.)
>> It is not a lack of demand but a lack of supply that is
>> driving this market.
> 
> That is a hypothesis.
> 
> And a very easy one to test.
> 
> If it is a supply problem then salaries for Cobol
> would skyrocket.

COBOL salaries tend ot be fairly high for real COBOL
jobs.  The one I mentioned above is stuck with a non-
competitive salary offer because it is a government
job and OPM has no idea about reasonable salaries.
Just go look at some of the postings on USAJOBS.

Eaxamples:

GS09:  Starting Salary: $43,857.00 per year
Education: possess a master's or equivalent degree

GS07:  Starting Salary: $35,854.00 per year
Education: Bachelor's degree with Superior Academic Achievement
                           (whatever that means :-)

And then you have the ones that are more reasonable.

Information Technology Specialist (SA/AS) COBOL Applications
Developer) -- Starting at $103,106 (GS 14)

This is with the IRS.  Unisys Mainframe.

Another that has nothing up now but will have jobs posted
again by the new year with similar salaries is DFAS.  IBM
Mainframe COBOL/DB2/CICS.

These sometimes show  up on Monster and the others but
you can't apply thru them.  They got them by Web Scrapping
and not because the hiring agency provided them to the job
site.

> 
> Well - they have not.
> 
> So that hypotheses van be rejected.

Only by people who rely on Monster for their job and salary
data.

> 
>>> But what skills are in demand is an observable fact.
>>>
>>> Jobs on dice.com today:
>>>
>>> Java        29992
>>> JavaScript  23650
>>> C++         17626
>>> Python       9476
>>> C#           6279
>>> C            4881
>>> Go           3890
>>> Perl         2439
>>> Ruby         2051
>>> PHP          1635
>>> Scala        1420
>>> TypeScript    754
>>> VB.NET        651
>>> Groovy        490
>>> Cobol         373
>>> Ada           272
>>> Kotlin        215
>>> Fortran       122
>>> Clojure        65
>>> Rust           54
>>> Delphi         36
>>> Haskell        32
>>> OCAML           8
>>> Pascal          4
>>> PL/I            3
>>
>> There are lies, damned lies and statistics.
>> These are results based on the boilerplate used in vacancy
>> announcements.  I can provide the inflated numbers for COBOL
>> and Fortran as well, from one particular employer but I know,
>> for a fact, that their vacancy announcements are pure, old,
>> boilerplate.
> 
> I must admit that I consider a theory about companies wanting
> Cobol and Fortran skills not mentioning those skills in job
> ads and instead ask for Java and Python to be clear tinfoil
> hat material.

I know of no one who would look for COBOL or Fortran programmers
by advertising for Java or Python.  Why would you do it?  You would
get no applicants with your needed qualifications and you would not
get applications from people with the skills you needed.

> 
>>> You will get a bit different results with a different job search
>>> engine a different day.
>>
>> Not likely as they all have exactly the same listing all acquired the
>> same way.
> 
> Again that is a hypothesis.
> 
> A testable hypothesis.
> 
> dice.com
> 
> Java    29829
> C#       6214
> Python   9408
> PHP      1614
> Cobol     364
> 
> monster.com
> 
> Java    82335
> C#      22907
> Python  42227
> PHP      6733
> Cobol    1736
> 
> Hypothesis rejected.

Why? the ratios are the  same.  The totals are different.
That only says one is more aggressive in their search than
the others.  (or, they inflate their numbers to make people
think they have more to offer.  I  have visited a  number
of these sites and often find the same job listed multiple
times.  Care to guess what t hat does to the numbers?

> 
>>> But they will all show the same neither Cobol nor Fortran skills
>>> are not in demand.
>>
>> Which is due to a large extent from the fact that the people using
>> Fortran and especially COBOL don't waste their time with those job
>> sites and primarily do their own hiring.  Whjile some of their jobs
>> sneak into Monster, Indeed, etc.
> 
> Cobol jobs are some of the most likely to be posted on the
> big job sites.

Why?  You would have to trust the job site.  Most serious employers
do not.

"Lockheed Martin utilizes our own internal Talent Acquisition
Organization to fill our employment needs."

"Stay safe from recruitment fraud! The only way to apply for a
position at Boeing is via our Careers website."

> 
> Almost all Cobol jobs are with big entities (financial, government etc.)
> they have HR departments that make sure that job ads get posted
> practically everywhere.

See comments above, taken directly from their career websites.
They are only two of a class of companies that do not utilize
the useless web job sites.  If you want to work for a dubious
employer for less than your probably worth and much less in
the benefits column then continue to use Monster, Dice, Indeed,
etc.  I spent years telling my students that and I am greatly
pleased every time I see something on LinkedIn about one of my
students advancing in their careers.

bill