[Info-vax] Opportunity for VSI?

[Simon Clubley]

On 2018-12-15, Arne Vajhøj <arne at vajhoej.dk> wrote:
> On 12/15/2018 10:06 AM, Bill Gunshannon wrote:
>> Experience varies.  The places I mentioned fo0r COBOL are
>> constantly in the hiring mode.  Finding qualified people
>> is becoming the problem.  (The last COBOL gig I did was
>> in GA in 2012.  After I left they spent 3 years repeatedly
>> advertising for another COBOL programmer.  No one who
>> applied had any COBOL experience at all.  After three
>> years they just stopped trying.  I have spoken with them
>> about the problem and know for a fact what transpired.)
>> It is not a lack of demand but a lack of supply that is
>> driving this market.
>
> That is a hypothesis.
>
> And a very easy one to test.
>
> If it is a supply problem then salaries for Cobol
> would skyrocket.
>
> Well - they have not.
>
> So that hypotheses van be rejected.
>

You and Bill are both overlooking something when it comes to Cobol
and Fortran jobs.

You are both wrongly assuming that dedicated programmers, based in
western countries, will always be hired for both types of jobs.

In the case of Cobol, how much Cobol development is now done in India
and similar places ? Supply problems there may not result in salaries
skyrocketing (at least by western standards).

In the case of Fortran, how much of the Fortran development is done by
dedicated programmers, and how much is done by people (say researchers
and cheap/free labour otherwise known as students) who do the development
as part of a larger research project ?

In the case of Fortran especially, the latter type of usage is not going
to show up on the job boards as "Help! Fortran programmer wanted!".

Simon.

-- 
Simon Clubley, clubley at remove_me.eisner.decus.org-Earth.UFP
Microsoft: Bringing you 1980s technology to a 21st century world