[Info-vax] relaunch or legacy

[Dave Froble]

On 1/29/2022 5:17 PM, Gérard Calliet wrote:
> Le 28/01/2022 à 22:32, Dave Froble a écrit :
>> On 1/28/2022 7:58 AM, Gérard Calliet wrote:
>>> Le 28/01/2022 à 13:29, John Dallman a écrit :
>>>> In article <j5i0m8Fs463U1 at mid.individual.net>,
>>>> gerard.calliet at pia-sofer.fr (Gérard Calliet) wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> I apologize for the probably pretentiousness of this presentation.
>>>>> If it can be an excuse, I consider that the respect due to an
>>>>> audience as learned and experienced as c.o.v. implies to entrust
>>>>> them with complex things.
>>
>> Frankly, I fail to understand just what you're trying to say.  Maybe use fewer
>> and smaller words?
> My problem is quite simple: why the majority of customers we know in france
> don't think about a real future for VMS, and don't do efforts to port to x86.
> And also why VSI seems to be totaly deaf.
>>
>>>> Here we seem to have a difference in national etiquette. To Americans,
>>>> and other English-speakers, especially engineers, a crisis is best
>>>> explained in a few blunt words. Lengthy speeches remove the sense of
>>>> urgency.
>>
>> Just what is your crisis?  Try fewer words.  Be specific.
> Same words: no more business with VMS in the few next years. The ones who are
> not quitting now do that against their will, so we understand.
> If we are not the exception, it seems there is a crisis.
>
> VMS is more and more expensive, the subscription is totally badly received.
>
> In france we have not any real information about the adoption of x86 elsewhere,
> not serious information of the business results of VSI. The french pay to
> another entity (teracloud) their bills. For a lot of the big customers it's a
> problem: to deal with a little company a little bit unknowned.
>
> Changes in the key management is worrying: changes of ceo, arriving of persons
> from the investor's past, and not any word about what is the signification on
> strategy: who is the pilot, where he really wants to go?
>
> Alliance with sector7, and we heard from a VSI people about port of customers to
> x86 "we'll [the service business unit of VSI] study your case, if we can help
> you to go to x86 we'll help you, and otherwise we'll find solutions".
> Consequence: do they themselves in VSI think x86 will succeed?
>
> You can think french are wrong on all that bad signals. We have the symitric
> cultural default: when we hear a beautifull simple story, we suspect someones is
> making fun of us. Pathological pessimism.
>
> And a dreadfull confession: even my french friends say my sentences are too long
> and complicate. In french, as our big writer, Proust, it is possible to do very
> long sentences, and sometimes the writer don't even understands himself what he
> has writen. I'm not Proust, but I have this default, and, worst, I use a
> automatic translator when I have no time (a very good one, it uses IA). I reread
> quickly, and if I understand, I send. Big apologies :(
>
> Anyway, I understand I failed to explain my point. Perhaps one or two things
> could be clear.
>
> I'm totaly convinced VSI would succeed only if they are strongly innovative,
> because the issue of VMS revival is everything but trivial. And my analasys is
> that from 2014 to today they have been strongly non innovative. So I try to
> understand why, and how help thinking better.
>
> Example:
> why HP killed VMS? Very simple: because not immediate profits, not good with the
> standard analysis of big IT companies. It is not an error, it is just a
> standard. And I remember that in 2013 everyone in c.o.v. was just saying the
> same thing: no future for VMS, all the trends are against a success. Again, good
> arguments.
>
> Not mine in these years. I thought there was in VMS an exception which could
> match with the emerging tendancy of sustainibility. I was right, no?
>
> But the equation was: compatibility of the VMS exceptions with the emerging
> tendancy.
>
> And as everyone knows, the business paradigms for sustainability are a very
> complex issue, just emerging (for guys who live near MIT, please learn about
> that). How to make profits with solutions which have very long lives (the
> contrary of the Schumpeter "destructive creation" paradigm), which need an
> agenda with very long times (the contrary of the grand majority of the markets).
> Possible but not trivial at all. To cope with it in simple issues (doing green
> technology, for example) is not simple.
>
> But with VMS we have to make a match between something which has had
> similarities with the sustainability but is not quite from the same cultur. More
> difficult.
>
> And VSI constructs a strategy as if VMS could be profitable in the same
> paradigms that had killed it. Success is possible? No. I thought that in 2014.
>
> Now in France VMS cannot be sustainable. Look for the error.
>
> The idea is a little complex, but the sentences are shorter. I did my best.
>
> Other example:
>
> A question:
>
> Is VMS a legacy system? Or being on x86 one of the normal modern and attractive OS?
>
> If you hear VSI people, one day legacy, one day like all others. Perhaps they
> don't know, and perhaps they don't care - and perhaps as all of us :), we don't
> care.
>
> The question is what strategy to choose? And imagine that VMS could be the
> opportunity to have a change in the concept of legacy, because it is just in the
> middle of the road, and that it is this situation which can have a great future.
> To succeed we need to know who we are.
>
> As you see: shorter sentences, more sentences needed.
>
> Just for fun, a little story.
>
> I founded about ten years ago a professional association for VMS (we had the
> final banquet a month ago: too members retired). Whith it we could do some
> interesting business. It was not so simple, but we succeed.
>
> I remember one of the member who explained to me how to do good business, being
> understood by customers. The sentence is KISS: Keep It Simple Stupid. I do say
> he made my day with that. I was wandering saying that to Mr Turing, or Miss Ada
> Lovelace, or the Lady of the Navy who contributed to Cobol and the Digital
> history. I'm not comparing me with these geniuses.
>
> Only saying innovation is very, very complex and subtil new differences (between
> relaunch and legacy, for example) are very difficult to define and expose. On
> the other hand it is very simple to not innovate, because the totality of the
> old good certitudes are here to give us the tranquility.
>
> Relaunch of VMS is innovative. The KISS method has been applied. Done.
>

Ok, I'll try to keep this simple.

Start with, for the most part, humans are like lemmings.  A bunch say "let's go 
run off the cliff, and not wanting to think for themselves, and not wanting to 
be left behind, another bunch joins in the "running off the cliff".

Now let's look at VMS and alternatives.

VMS is basically an OS developed by DEC to sell hardware.  Back in the day that 
hardware was quite expensive, and the profits must have been rather nice.  Part 
of that is that people took sides.  I like IBM.  I like DEC.  I like HP.  I like 
Data General.  And all the rest.  So the result is that those liking VMS will 
not be in the majority.  Perhaps a decently large percentage, but less than 50%. 
  So, for the majority, if their preferred brand is no longer available, they 
choose something else, and Unix and Linux are not tied to one of the old brands, 
thus is something they can grab onto without "joining the enemy".

Then there is the thing called WEENDOZE.  I've had former customers tell me "we 
want to be a 100% windows shop".  I ask why, and they do not have any reasons. 
Did I perhaps mention lemmings?

So, let's consider VMS.  If a user has an application that runs on VMS and is 
meeting their needs, then VMS is most likely what they should choose to continue 
to use.  If they can.  With the port to x86, such customers can do so, or, they 
can become lemmings.  Some will do one, some the other.  If they choose 
lemmings, there really isn't much one can do about that.  They have made a 
command decision, and surely don't want to hear what idiots they are.  Calling 
them idiots won't be helpful.  But they have made a bad decision.  It happens. 
Get over it.

While the port to x86 is not complete, it is rather clear that VSI is being 
successful, and will complete it.  Note that they really don't have much time 
for anything else, so if you ask for anything else, you will be disappointed.

The situation for ISVs is similar.  They may have applications that are suitable 
for some tasks.  The key is whether customers believe those applications, on 
VMS, are "right" for them.  Some will have heard the call of the lemmings, and 
most likely there is nothing you can do to convince them otherwise.  Just wave 
to them as they head for the cliff.

VSI's current customer base is those still on VMS, for whatever reason.  Some 
will continue, as long as VMS is available.  Some will hear the call of the 
lemmings "it's gonna die, run while you can".  It's called a "self fulfilling 
prophesy", and it happens all the time.  Companies blow millions of dollars and 
go out of business all the time.  That will continue to happen.

Remember the line in the song, "a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards 
the rest".  If someone is not listening to you, move on to those who might. 
That is about all you can do.

-- 
David Froble                       Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc.      E-Mail: davef at tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA  15486